900 Us To Aus – AUD/USD has recovered from previous declines and is now trading 0.16% higher. This follows Tuesday’s sharp 1.46% drop after the RBA delivered a rate hike from 50bp to 1.85%, while also providing a cautious view of the direction of monetary policy.
Traders were disappointed with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s outlook for future rate hikes, which RBA Governor Philip Lowe said was “not on a predetermined path” after the bank said it expected inflation conditions to subside later in the year. The tone of the statement was considered meek, leading to a major sell-off in AUD/USD. The RBA’s stance has prompted analysts at Goldman Sachs to reduce the probability of a 50 basis point increase in September and October 2022 to 60% and 55%, respectively.
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By contrast, the aggressive Fedspeak and a rise in US long-term bond yields supported the dollar, which struggled throughout the week. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 6.79% on Tuesday and is currently up a further 0.33% on Wednesday to put further pressure on the AUD/USD.
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Despite the Australian dollar’s gains that day, the unfolding geopolitical situation between China and Taiwan during the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could add further headwind to AUD/USD’s gains.
The intraday recovery keeps price action above the 0.68719 support (lows of June 23 and July 20). A retest of this support and subsequent breakdown gives the bears a path to the July 1/7 2022 low of 0.67664. If the bulls fail to defend this support, then 0.66842 will be the next downward target, such as the previous location of the May 29, 2020 candle high and the July 15, 2022 candle low.
This outlook will be negated as the bulls gather momentum from the intraday bounce to march towards the 0.69848 resistance. A breach above this barrier paves the way for the June 13/1 high. August of 0.70408. Another upward target is at the resistance of 0.70973 (low Feb 24/June 9), after which bulls will have clear skies to reach the June 7 high at 0.72420. The Australian dollar fell to a 10-year low against the greenback on Thursday after weak manufacturing results in China and the European Union raised concerns about global growth.
The Aussie dollar, which traded just above 70 cents on Wednesday, fell sharply around 9:30 a.m. AEDT on Thursday to trade at 67.49 cents. This is a decrease of more than 3 percent. The last time the Australian dollar was this low was in early 2009. By midday it had risen above 69 cents again.
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During overnight trading, the US dollar climbed against the euro and sterling, but fell against the safe haven Japanese yen as investors wary of slowing global growth and volatile stock markets.
Factory activity weakened in much of Europe and Asia in December as the US-China trade war and a slowdown in demand hit manufacturing in many economies, giving little cause for optimism as the new year began.
Chris Weston, head of research at currency trader Pepperstone, said the drop was the result of a string of poor results that led to concerns about global growth, including poor production results in China, Australia’s largest trading partner.
Weston said US President Donald Trump’s assurances that trade talks with China are “progressing well” had not allayed fears about the global economy.
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“It’s a combination of several factors, to be honest. It’s not just any smoking gun,” Weston told Guardian Australia.
“Obviously you have to get to that point initially, and that point was created by the concerns about global growth. It’s a combination of what you see in China with their [purchasing managers index] numbers, the numbers of the National Bureau of Statistics.”
“Some data points to the United States, Europe, is terrible. You’ve made everything work against the global economy. Even if we see a solution [to the trade war], that’s great. But the damage is probably done here. That the interest rate market couldn’t move last night after Trump came out and said talks [with China] are going well…that tells me people are quite concerned about the global economy.”
Australian treasurer Josh Frydenberg brushed off currency movements, telling reporters in Lorne that the dollar is “going up and down” as it is the fifth most traded currency in the world.
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Frydenberg attributed the shift to “a number of factors,” including a rise in official US interest rates and lower trading volume over the Australian summer.
Apple also announced heavy losses on Thursday, pushing its shares down 7.45%, wiping $55 billion (£44 billion) of its value.
“You can also insert the Apple numbers there, but the move actually happened an hour and a half after the Apple news came out,” Weston said. “So it just pushed the price to levels where you had a stop-loss run in a very illiquid time and you had this vacuum that just dragged the price down.”
Ray Attrill, National Australia Bank’s head of currency strategy, said the Apple news was an “initial catalyst” for the movement of the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. But he said Apple’s results alone “can’t justify moves of this scale.” He said the subsequent recovery pointed more to a lack of liquidity behind what he believed was a “flash crash.”
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“This morning’s shifts in scale bear all the hallmarks of a sudden disappearance of liquidity, which was initially most evident in USD/JPY (and on a day when the Tokyo market is on vacation),” he said. “The USD/JPY exchange rate, typically one of the more liquid pairs in the Asian time zone, fell in the blink of an eye from around 107.50 yen to below 105 yen, after an initial rapid decline from just below 109 yen.”
Attrill said the trade talks between China and the US pose the “main risk” to the Australian dollar in the coming weeks.
“These should agree a reasonably comprehensive deal as a minimum precondition for an improvement in global risk-off sentiment and a stronger AUD.”
CBA chief economist Michael Blythe said the bad economic news came at a time when markets were thin over the holiday season.
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“It was a perfect storm in a way. Thin markets at a time when you get negative China and global news, so the Australian dollar is knocked over, Blythe told Guardian Australia.
But according to the CBA forecasts, the Australian dollar will rise to 75 cents by the end of 2019.
In a cautious start to the year, traders punished riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar and the euro as they propelled the yen to a new seven-month high against the greenback.
Against the yen, which typically benefits during geopolitical or financial stress as Japan is the world’s largest creditor, the dollar was down 0.36%.
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Chinese factory activity fell for the first time in 19 months in December as domestic and export orders continued to weaken, a private survey found.
“The data from China adding to the general concern about the slowdown in global growth and this risky tone has helped the Japanese yen perform better than today,” said Eric Viloria, currency strategist at Credit Agricole in New York.
Meanwhile, the ASX rose on opening, boosted by plus percentage gains for financials, energy and mining stocks, while the Australian dollar rallied after falling to a 10-year low.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 rose 76.1 points, or 1.37%, to 5,633.9 on . Thursday 10:30 a.m. AEDT thanks to broad early gains as the stock bounced back strongly from a bleak start to the trading year. The broader All Ordinaries rose 72.6 points, or 1.29%, to 5,698.2.
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All four major banks rose, led by Westpac, with gains of 1.92% to $24.95. IAG rose 1.74% to $7.03 after increasing its disaster reinsurance program by $1 billion to $9 billion for 2019, while shares of Suncorp, QBE, Medibank, and NIB each rose between 1.17% and 2. 8% increased.
On the other side of the coin, AUB Group, OSC Insurance and Moelis fell between 3.48% and 5.02%.
The energy sector rose more than two percent after an overnight oil price hike, with Santos rising 2.65% to $5.42, Caltex rising 2.54% to $25.81 and Woodside rising 2.43% to $31.23.
Origin, Oil Search and Soul Pattinson rose between 1.31% and 2.06%. BHP rose 0.77% to $33.94 and fellow mining giant Rio Tinto rose 0.63% to $77.13 despite subdued metal prices. South32 was up 1.53% to $3.32 and Bluescope Steel was up 2.3% to $11.10.
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Shares in Pilbara Mining rose more than 10% after the company announced it had secured financing for an expansion of its Pilgangoora lithium mine.
Gold prospectors were also excited with the precious metal near its six-month high overnight. Newcrest was leading 2.23% at $22,195.
Telstra rose 2.17% to $2.83 to boost the telecom sector, with supermarkets Woolworths and Coles rising 1.03% and 1.79% respectively.
Wesfarmers gained 1.93% to $32.16, but adventure retailer Kathmandu fell more than 11% after announcing a disappointing Christmas sales period.
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A 1.32% increase in CSL to $187.83 propelled the healthcare sector up as industrial, energy, technology and
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